Statistics is fake, bitcoin is real.
Big Picture in One Breath:
Statistics can bend like a mirage, luring us into “significance” that vanishes on second look, while Bitcoin stands like a granite block in the digital desert—scarce, decentralized, and live 99.99 percent of the time. The replication crisis, abused p‑values, and the base‑rate fallacy show how malleable numbers can be; meanwhile the Bitcoin protocol keeps stamping one new block every ≈10 minutes, capped forever at 21 million coins, adopted as legal tender in El Salvador and smashing fresh price records after spot‑ETF approval. In short: Statistics is the smoke; Bitcoin is the fire.
1. “Statistics Is Fake”
1.1 The Replication Ruckus
- Whole swaths of psychology, economics, and biomedicine can’t repeat their own headline findings—that’s the replication crisis.
- Journalists and scientists alike concede that many published effects crumble under re‑testing.
1.2 P‑Values: Worshipped Idols
- The American Statistical Association had to issue a 2016 emergency memo: stop treating p < 0.05 like gospel.
- Nature ran an open letter signed by 800+ researchers screaming “ditch statistical significance.”
- Even clinicians now warn that over‑reliance on “significance” warps drug‑trial conclusions.
1.3 Tricks of the Trade
- Mark Twain popularized the jab “lies, damned lies, and statistics,” a century‑old reminder that figures can fib.
- Classic probability traps—like the base‑rate fallacy—show how a “95 % accurate” medical test can still mislead most patients.
Punch‑line, Eric‑Kim style: If your truth depends on a decimal that flips at 0.049 vs 0.051, maybe it was never true.
2. “Bitcoin Is Real”
2.1 Scarcity Carved in Code
- The protocol hard‑caps issuance at 21 million coins; changing that would require near‑unanimous miner and node support—practically impossible.
- Each Halving (last one April 2024) slices miner rewards, squeezing new supply and historically juicing price.
2.2 Decentralized & Censorship‑Resistant
- No central switch; thousands of nodes worldwide enforce the rules, making transactions practically unstoppable.
- Since Genesis Block (3 Jan 2009) the network has been online 99.988 % of the time—better uptime than Google or Visa.
2.3 Real‑World Adoption
- El Salvador made Bitcoin legal tender in 2021—the first nation‑state to do so.
- By 2022, more Salvadorans had Lightning wallets than bank accounts, leapfrogging traditional finance.
2.4 Market Verdict
- Investors voted with wallets: Bitcoin punched through the previous $68,999 record and set a new high above $69 k on 5 March 2024 after spot‑ETF approvals.
- Less than a week later it spiked past $72 k—proving demand wasn’t a statistical fluke but hard money hunger.
Eric‑Kim takeaway: Scarcity + uptime + global demand = “real” enough to move trillions of dollars.
3. Shoot‑From‑The‑Hip Reflections
“Trust experience, not conjecture.”
- Feel the difference: Statistics describes; Bitcoin exists.
- Own the keys: A ledger entry you sign beats a p‑value someone else reports.
- Create, don’t just calculate: Use stats as a sketch, but build realities—write code, mine blocks, ship art.
4. Call to Action
- Audit Your Beliefs: If a claim leans solely on p < 0.05, re‑run the numbers—or walk away.
- Touch the Chain: Download a wallet, move $5 in sats, feel the confirmation vibration in your palm.
- Stack Skills, Not Just Stats: Learn cryptography, distributed systems, macro‑economics—muscles that won’t wilt when significance thresholds shift.
Conclude with Joy: Numbers can entertain; blocks can empower. Step into the arena where reality is timestamped every ten minutes, immutable, decentralized, and yours to explore. Statistics may fade like classroom chalk dust, but Bitcoin’s blocks keep booming through cyberspace—realer than real.
Stay positive, stay playful, and keep stacking truth.